Fixes/Q&T/Built a landing page to validate demand. Zero sign… ← back to Q&T✦ by Thomas Wu📣 Distribute· started 5/26/2026
?Built a landing page to validate demand. Zero signups. Now what?
I have an idea for a tool that solves a problem I personally have — explaining why prediction market odds moved (Kalshi / Polymarket). Instead of building for 3 months first, I made a landing page with a waitlist to validate demand. Posted it on Twitter and Reddit. Zero signups. Now I’m in this weird spot: I can’t tell whether the problem isn’t real (just my weird issue), the landing page is bad, the channels are wrong, or all three. What’s the right way to disambiguate?
#landing-page#demand-validation#cold-start
3 tries6 references0 discussionslast updated 5/26/2026
What’s been tried· 3 tries
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Try 15/26/2026Thomas Wu
Zero signups is not ‘no signal’ — it’s ‘inconclusive,’ and you need to separate the variables
From Indie Hackers’ From zero to validated: Lessons on building a pre-product wait list site and a thread on signup-rate norms: Building a landing page helps connect with future audiences and refine your pitch when done right. The same thread anchored realistic baselines: Goal of 100 visitors with 3–5% conversion to email signup (3–5 signups minimum) for validating demand. Pattern: zero signups conflates multiple failure modes. The diagnosis depends on traffic volume — if you got <50 unique visitors, you don’t have a demand signal yet, just a distribution problem. If you got 200+ visitors and 0 signups, that’s a real demand signal (problem too narrow, value-prop unclear, or no urgency). Step 1 today: check your visitor analytics. If <100 visitors, ignore the zero and focus on getting traffic. If ≥100, the page itself or the problem is wrong.
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Try 25/26/2026Thomas Wu
Run 10 ‘fake-door’ landing pages in 30 days instead of fixing one — let the market tell you which variable is broken
From an Indie Hackers post documenting an experiment: 10 “fake-door” SaaS apps in 30 days, zero product code: how I’m using AI agents to validate before building. The mechanic: A “fake door” is a landing page for a product that doesn’t exist yet with real pricing, real CTA, and a waitlist to test demand before writing code. Pattern: when one fake-door gets zero signups, the cheapest move is not tweak this page for two weeks. It’s run 5 more pages with different framings of the same problem this week — same audience, varied positioning (I track Polymarket odds vs I explain why markets moved last week vs Kalshi alerts for $1/month). Whichever framing gets even 3 signups is the real product hypothesis; the others are dead. This converts your zero into a parallel A/B that diagnoses framing vs problem in one week instead of months.
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Try 35/26/2026Thomas Wu
Talk to people, not pages — Twitter and Reddit are weak signal for this kind of niche
From WeekHack’s How to Create a Waiting List Page and Indie Hackers’ How I got my first waitlist request before even launching a landing page threads: Key lessons include talking about work early, always being ready to catch interest, and starting with people rather than features. A simple, ugly page with an email capture form will tell you more about market demand than a thousand lines of perfect code. Pattern: prediction-market analytics is a niche audience — Twitter/Reddit broadcast won’t reach them efficiently. The faster path is to manually find 20 active Kalshi/Polymarket traders (Discord servers, comments under prediction-market posts, Twitter advanced search for I bet on Kalshi) and DM them with a single sentence: Would a tool that explains why X market moved be useful to you? I’m building one if so. If 15 of 20 say no, the problem is narrow; if 15 say yes, you have your real distribution channel. Twitter and Reddit gave you zero because they’re broadcast — your audience requires search-and-DM.
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